Libertarian Chat

Region 2 Report - November 2019

Discussion started on Region 2

This morning I sent my resignation email to the Secretary and to the body of the EC. Last month I worked, albeit unsuccessfully, to find a replacement for myself in Region 2 and used previous and current voter data to determine trends for Region 2. In my resignation email I included a final report for my tenure, which I will also attach here.

My highlights are as follows:
We should prioritize Washington, Jackson, Gulf, and Holmes for affiliation. In the report I include a city breakdown for each of these counties.

In terms of identifiable trends, R2 has not benefited from the membership boom that the LPF has undergone over the past two years. For example, while the Okaloosa County Libertarian Party (R1) saw an increase in nearly 200 voters from October 2017 to October 2019 (going from 584 to 730 registered LPF), the Bay County Libertarian Party (R2) experienced a decrease by nearly the same amount (going from 754 to 589 registered LPF). As far as I could tell, this was because many people left R2, but for those that remained, roughly 65% went Republican and 35% went Democrat. I have to assume this is a Trump-Bernie divide (Holmes County won Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary with 51% of the vote, the highest in Florida),  but I regretfully did not call anyone to ask.

I've identified two strategies for outreach: the first is Victor Bean's Panama City Beach gun show. This may be a way to affiliate or at least increase the number of LPF in counties adjacent to Bay, including Washington and Gulf. Second, Trump has held two massive 10,000+ supporter rallies in Panama City Beach over the last two years. I'm certain there will be more. Although Trump is very obviously not a Libertarian, there are surely "Trump Libertarians" in the Panhandle who might be willing to make a party switch if we can gauge interest at these things. I think it would be a mistake to skip over them.

Finally in my report, I question the effectiveness of setting the goal of affiliating individual counties. Given that most of the counties in R2 have less than 20 Libertarians (a large proportion of whom are over the retirement age of 66 years and 2 months), trying to affiliate each county as an island of its own may be a strategy doomed to fail. As such I make the recommendation of examining affiliation conglomerates which have existed in the past (for example, The Northwest Florida Libertarian Party that existed in R1). For this I've identified three potential groups: The Bay County Libertarian Party representing Bay County; the Gulf Libertarian Party representing Gulf, Liberty, and Franklin counties; and the North Florida Libertarian Party representing Holmes, Washington, Jackson, and Calhoun counties.

I hope anyone who is interested is able to access my report and I look forward to helping my replacement onboard with the LPF in the near future.

Best regards,
Cody
#1 - November 15, 2019, 01:05:11 PM
« Last Edit: November 15, 2019, 01:06:48 PM by Cody Moser »